The Daily Wager Best Bets
Daily Wager ESPN sports betting analyst Doug Kezirian is joined by sports betting experts as well as ESPN analysts and reporters for discussion on how the day's sports news affects betting. Pickswise is the home of free sports picks, news and betting tips. Keeping you up to date with the latest sports news and breaking stories. Our experts give you their best bets and best free betting picks every day on all major US sports so you don’t have to spend hours researching into the statistics and data. UFC president Dana White joins Daily Wager ahead of Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns at UFC 258 to discuss all things sports betting and the role gambling will.
ESPN premiered its first daily gambling show, Daily Wager, on Monday. My expectations coming in were low, given ESPN’s tepid description of the show (“discussion and expert analysis will be combined with ESPN’s stats and information resources”), but for the most part, they were exceeded.
The first thing you immediately notice on Daily Wager is the extreme amount of on-screen graphics. Holy shit.
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Yeah, that’s the traditional Bottom Line, with a running sidebar of odds and totals of a variety of games, and a line of futures on top of the bottom line.
The format of the show is pretty simple—Doug Kezirian talks to people about games, why the lines are where they are, and what they’re feeling about the games. ESPN’s initial release about the show indicated that “sports wagering experts will be making picks on the program while ESPN reporters and analysts will provide information and insight but will not be making picks,” but this is a bit misleading. Most of the people featured on the shows are classified as “sports wagering experts,” but even that isn’t consistent.
Adam Schefter had a brief segment, and didn’t make anything remotely close to a pick. Barry Melrose (!!!) showed up and made some NHL winner and total picks while providing some analysis. Fantasy basketball writer Andre Snellings had an entire segment dedicated to the night’s NBA prop bets and daily fantasy picks. It really seems like the only people not making picks on the show are the reporters, which actually makes all the sense in the world (compared to not letting anchors or analysts make picks).
I know that ESPN probably wanted to go all-out with the first episode of Daily Wager, but I felt there was too much content in the one-hour premiere. There were at least half a dozen guests in the first half hour, three of which were in studio with Kezirian for brief periods of time. The focus bounced all across the sports world, and was dizzying at times. They started with college basketball, moved on to the NBA, then moved to NFL futures, then to the NHL, then back to the NBA, and then onto baseball futures.
That baseball futures segment featured Scott Van Pelt and Stanford Steve with Kezirian, and it was the highlight of the show (mainly because Van Pelt went all in on his wretched Orioles team, before going with the over on their record-low win total).
ESPN.com’s David Purdum also joined Kezirian for a brief segment talking about the future of legalized sports betting in the US, and while the segment was well-thought out and interesting, it really didn’t feel like a fit with the way the show was set up. It’s obviously an important topic that many people have vested interests in, but going from game and line analysis and picks to what was essentially a straight news segment seemed to disrupt some of Daily Wager’s flow.
I also liked how each of the experts brought in on the show seemed to stick to their own lane. Those who knew about the NBA talked about the NBA. The college basketball experts talked about college basketball. The same was true during the lone NFL and NHL segments of the night, and I’d imagine it’ll also be true if the show starts talking about MLB games once the regular season starts.
Most of those featured on Daily Wager are pretty polished on camera, but the standouts were Kezirian (who isn’t just a studio host moonlighting as a gambling enthusiast), Stanford Steve (which you’d expect from his SC:SVP hits), and Chris “The Bear” Fallica (which you’d also expect, given his College GameDay segments). The trio was on camera together several times, and there’s some good chemistry between the three. Here’s hoping that the latter two still make appearances once college basketball season ends.
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I think there’s some room to grow, especially with ESPN dumping it on ESPNEWS to start. I also think the overall presentation isn’t too intimidating for novice bettors, though the information provided probably isn’t as useful to experienced bettors, who I can’t see making this part of their daily routine. Altogether, for better or worse depending on your opinion, Daily Wager accomplishes exactly what ESPN set out for it to do—bring sports gambling talk to ESPN on a daily basis without making it seem too forced or unapproachable.
After the Tampa Bay Buccaneers just cashed as 60-1 Super Bowl long shots, bettors would love to beat the market on a quarterback changing teams this offseason. However, it isn't that simple. For example, after landing Carson Wentz in a trade with Philadelphia, the Indianapolis Colts saw their title odds shift only slightly, from 25-1 to 20-1. That's because oddsmakers were well aware of the speculation that Wentz could reunite with his former offensive coordinator, current Colts head coach Frank Reich. So be careful assuming that oddsmakers think Wentz is only a slight upgrade from Jacoby Brissett; bookmakers knew the Colts were going to land a QB.
Moving forward, while we expect more quarterback movement in the coming weeks, finding that golden ticket is still possible. You just have to read the tea leaves. The fact that some bettors speculated at this time last year that the Bucs could land an all-timer like Tom Brady is that much more impressive.
Every week, Daily Wager and Chalk sports betting analyst Doug Kezirian and sports betting reporter David Purdum will give us odds and ends, nuggets and notes around the sports betting landscape.
Here's what we are keeping our eye on this week:
Field prop: Every sports season takes on its own identity, and this college basketball year has been dominated by two programs: Baylor and Gonzaga. They're the nation's lone remaining unbeatens, and many assume one will eventually cut down the nets. Caesars William Hill is now allowing bettors to wager on that very concept. In a proposition bet posted this week, bettors can wager on either the Bears or Bulldogs winning it all (+105), or you can take the field (-125). - Doug Kezirian
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Trending up: Betting trends are mostly fun facts, but it's hard to ignore some. For example, the Brooklyn Nets have hit the over in 21 of their last 25 games. Conventional thought would suggest it's obvious the over is more likely for the Nets, given their scoring prowess and defensive limitations. But oddsmakers are aware of those concepts and incorporate all that into the line, which is why Nets totals are typically the highest any night they play (235 on Sunday night). That's what makes this recent run that much more wild.
Additionally, the New Orleans Pelicans 21-3-1 to the over in their last 24 games. This stems from having a team that ranks seventh in offensive efficiency and third-worst in defensive efficiency. Again, oddsmakers know this, but somehow the over has still been cashing. - Doug Kezirian
Trending Down: The Cleveland Cavaliers have failed to cover the spread in 13 consecutive games, tying them for the longest such streak in the last 32 seasons, according to ESPN Stats and Information. The 2000-01 Cavaliers also had a streak of 13 straight losses against the spread. - David Purdum
Timing is everything: Seemingly more than any other sport, the NBA offers lucrative in-game wagering opportunities that actually pay off. Just in the past week, the Nets rallied from a 22-point deficit in the third quarter against the Suns, cashing 20-1 money-line wagers. One bettor turned $200 into $4200. The very next night, the Golden State Warriors trailed the Miami Heat by 15 points in the fourth quarter, only to win in overtime. The Dubs were 16-1 on the in-game money line. A William Hill bettor in Indiana won over $2K, hitting the Warriors at 9-1. And on Sunday, the Pelicans got as high as 25-1 down 24 to the Celtics, with one bettor cashing at 14-1 in New Jersey. - Doug Kezirian
Tax burden: Despite forcing bettors to lay more lumber than they should, the Utah Jazz just kept covering. Before falling to the Los Angeles Clippers on Friday night, the Jazz posted a 19-1-1 record against the spread (ATS) in a 21-game stretch (20 outright wins). It's just mind-boggling. All oddsmakers could do to offset the expected avalanche of Utah money is tax the Jazz a bit higher on the point spread. But score one for the oddsmakers, as the Jazz did close as two-point underdogs to the Clips, despite that ridiculous run. - Doug Kezirian
Merlin Magic: News often trickles out about tickets of large amounts or huge long shot odds, but rarely do we see the combination of big money on the long shot. Last week, BetMGM reported a $10,000 wager on the Washington Wizards to win the NBA championship at 500-1 odds. The ticket nets $5 million. The Wizards sit at 10-17, but they have won four straight games and currently reside just 3 games back of a playoff spot.
My sources tell me this particular bettor often beats the closing number and is fairly respected, but he is also allowed to wager large amounts. Either way, the pick is a head-scratcher. Then again, imminent Hall of Famer Kevin Garnett once implored us that anything is possible, and I imagine that's even more so the case with a season full of pandemic-related unknowns. - Doug Kezirian
No joke: A bettor in Australia cashed in big on Novak Djokovic's victory at the Australian Open. The unidentified bettor placed a $115,000 bet on Djokovic at +125 on Feb. 3 with Australian sportsbook TAB. It was the largest since bet on the tournament with TAB, the book reported. Djokovic defeated Daniil Medvedev in straight sets for his ninth Australian Open title. - David Purdum
Guessing game: Major League Baseball is reportedly deadening the ball this season in response to recent surges in home runs, and oddsmakers are trying to figure out just how much it will impact scoring.
'My honest answer is I have no idea,' Randy Blum, baseball oddsmaker for the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas, said. 'Behind closed doors, who knows what they're really doing to the baseball, if anything?'
'It's kind of similar to last year, when people were asking about how the N.L. having the DH would impact totals,' Blum added. 'When you're talking about totals, it's the same answer we gave last year - it's really about the pitching.' - David Purdum
Catching the dog: According to Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill, there were two 5-figures bets on Derrick Lewis at more than 3-1 in his upset of Curtis Blaydes during UFC Fight Night.
MLB win total movement: The three teams that saw the most early movement after William Hill U.S. sportsbooks posted them last week were:
Oakland Athletics from 86.5 to 88.5
St. Louis Cardinals from 86 to 88
Kansas City Royals from 71 to 73.
- David Purdum